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Week 6 most important news, that have affected the metal prices
Todays commodity prices
3 months LME USD 1.710 / EUR 1.540
3 months CLME USD 5.665 / EUR 5.100
The outbreak of the coronavirus has set the tone on the commodity market this last week. The investors are afraid that the coronavirus will affect the global economic. The market has been in risk-off and the commodity prices have fallen. At the same time the activity on the market has been low as the Chinese market was closed for Chinese New Year.
The Chinese market open yesterday. The stock prices fell about 8%. The Chinese metal market also open with falling metal prices, to catch up with the new level in the metal price. But generally, the metal prices did not fall as much as feared. The Chinese central bank was active yesterday. The central bank lowered the interest rate on loans and bought bonds. They did both to ease some of the pressure on the Chinese economy.
It seems like most of the negative effects from the coronavirus have been priced into the market, and unless there are large negative changes regarding the coronavirus, it seems like the market have settled at the current level.
On a positive note the American economy continues to be strong. The US Manufacturing PMI for January came out at 51,9, against expected 51,7. This shows that the American industry continues to produce at a strong level.
For now, it is expected that the coronavirus only will have a temporary effect on the commodity prices, and that the prices will bounce back very quickly when there is a cure for the virus.
Copper have fallen from USD 6.300 midst January to USD 5.575 yesterday, but the strong PMI from US have had a positive effect on the copper market and the copper prices are up approx. to USD 5.650 today.
Aluminum have not reacted the same way as copper. Aluminum is down from USD 1.820 midst January to USD 1.720 yesterday.
Factors that makes the price higher
Announcement of public stimulus in China.
Trade agreements between China and USA.
Factors that makes the price lower
The coronavirus in China.
Low economic growth from China, US and Europe.
The trade war between China and USA. There is a possibility that there will not be an agreement before the summer 2020.